Sarasin et al developed a risk score for predicting cardiac arrhythmia in a patient with unexplained syncope. The authors are from the University of Geneva and University of Pittsburgh.
Patient selection: unexplained syncope
Outcome: cardiac arrhythmia
Parameters:
(1) ECG
(2) age in years
(3) history of congestive heart failure (CHF)
Parameter
Finding
Points
ECG
normal
0
abnormal
1
age in years
< 65 years of age
0
>= 65 years of age
1
history of CHF
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for the 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 3
• The higher the score the greater the risk of an arrhythmia.
Total Score
Percent with Arrhythmia
0
0%
1
6%
2
41%
3
60%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve ranges from 0.75 (external validation) to 0.88 (derivation cohort).
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