Pannucci et al developed a model for predicting the risk of venous thromboembolism following surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Michigan.
Patient selection: surgical patient
Outcome: 90-day risk for venous thromboembolism
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) body mass index (BMI, obesity)
(4) SIRS, sepsis or septic shock
(5) personal history of venous thromboembolism
(6) family history of venous thromboembolism
(7) current cancer
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 60 years
0
>= 60 years
1
gender
female
0
male
2
BMI
< 40 kg per sq m
0
>= 40
1
SIRS, sepsis, septic shock
no
0
yes
3
personal history VTE
no
0
yes
3
family history VTE
no
0
yes
4
current cancer
no
0
yes
5
total score =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 19
• The higher the score the greater the risk of venous thromboembolism.
Score
30-Day Risk VTE
0
0.25%
1 to 2
0.5 to 0.9%
3 to 5
1.2 to 1.8%
6 to 8
3.0 to 3.5%
>= 9
4.5 to 5.0%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70 to 0.72.
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