Description

Pannucci et al developed a model for predicting the risk of venous thromboembolism following surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Michigan.


Patient selection: surgical patient

 

Outcome: 90-day risk for venous thromboembolism

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) gender

(3) body mass index (BMI, obesity)

(4) SIRS, sepsis or septic shock

(5) personal history of venous thromboembolism

(6) family history of venous thromboembolism

(7) current cancer

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 60 years

0

 

>= 60 years

1

gender

female

0

 

male

2

BMI

< 40 kg per sq m

0

 

>= 40

1

SIRS, sepsis, septic shock

no

0

 

yes

3

personal history VTE

no

0

 

yes

3

family history VTE

no

0

 

yes

4

current cancer

no

0

 

yes

5

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 7 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 19

• The higher the score the greater the risk of venous thromboembolism.

 

Score

30-Day Risk VTE

0

0.25%

1 to 2

0.5 to 0.9%

3 to 5

1.2 to 1.8%

6 to 8

3.0 to 3.5%

>= 9

4.5 to 5.0%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70 to 0.72.


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