Nevzorov et al reported a simple score for predicting 1-year mortality after placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Israel and belong to the Israel Heart Society.
Patient selection: ICD placement
Outcome: 1-year mortality (life expectancy less than 1 year is a contraindication for ICD placement)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) anemia
(3) atrial fibrillation
(4) chronic renal failure (GFR < 30 mL per min per 1.73 square meters)
(5) chronic lung disease
Parameter
Finding
Poiints
age in years
<= 75 years
0
> 75 years
3
anemia
absent
0
present
2
atrial fibrillation
absent
0
present
1
chronic renal failure
absent
0
present
3
chronic lung disease
absent
0
present
1
total score =
= SUM(point for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 10
• The higher the score the greater the risk for 1-year mortality.
Total Score
Risk Group
1-Year Mortality
0
low
1%
1 to 3
intermediate
4.1%
4 to 10
high
12.5%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.71.
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