Hill et al reported a score for predicting perioperative mortality after pancreatectomy. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Massachusetts.
NOTE: Ragulin-Coyne et al reported an updated version of this score.
Patient selection: pancreatectomy
Parameters:
(1) sex
(2) age in years
(3) Charlson score
(4) pancreatectomy type
(5) hospital volume for pancreatectomy
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
female
0
male
1
age
< 60 years
0
60 to 79 years
2
>= 80 years
5
Charlson score
0 or 1
0
2
1
>= 3
3
pancreatectomy type
proximal
2
distal
0
not specified
2
hospital volume
<= 8 per year
5
9 to 32 per year
3
> 32 per year
0
score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
ª minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 16
• The higher the score the greater the risk of mortality.
Score
Risk Group
Mortality
0 to 5
low
2%
6 to 9
intermediate
6.2%
>= 10
high
13.9%
If the data in Figure 1 is analyzed:
Score
Percent
0
0.5
1
0.8
2
1.0
3
1.4
4
2.0
5
2.8
6
3.8
7
5.0
8
6.8
9
9.0
10
11.5
11
14.1
12
17.2
13
26.7
14
27.6
15
39.5
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.
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