Ambler et al developed a score for predicting in-hospital mortality risk for a patient undergoing mitral and/or aortic valve surgery. The authors are from multiple institutions participating in the Society of Cardiothoracic Surgeons of Great Britain and Ireland database.
Patient selection: mitral and/or aortic valve surgery
Outcome: in-hospital mortality following surgery
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) gender
(3) body mass index
(4) mitral and/or aortic valve
(5) tricuspid valve surgery
(6) coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery
(7) renal failure
(8) cardiac arrhythmia
(9) hypertension
(10) diabetes mellitus
(11) left ventricular ejection fraction in percent
(12) superior priority
(13) number of previous cardiac operations
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
age in years |
< 50 years of age |
0 |
|
50 to 59 years of age |
1 |
|
60 to 69 years of age |
2 |
|
70 to 79 years of age |
4 |
|
>= 80 years |
5 |
gender |
male |
0 |
|
female |
1 |
body mass index |
>= 20 kg per square meter |
0 |
|
< 20 per square meter |
2 |
mitral and/or aortic valve surgery |
aortic valve |
0 |
|
mitral valve |
1 |
|
mitral and aortic valve |
2 |
concomitant tricuspid valve surgery |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
1 |
concomitant CABG |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
1 |
renal function |
serum creatinine <= 200 µmol/L |
0 |
|
serum creatinine > 200 µmol/L |
3 |
|
renal dialysis |
6 |
cardiac arrhythmia |
none |
0 |
|
atrial fibrillation and/or heart block |
1 |
|
ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation |
2 |
hypertension |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
1 |
diabetes |
no |
0 |
|
yes |
1 |
LVEF |
> 50% |
0 |
|
30 to 50% |
1 |
|
< 30% |
4 |
surgical priority |
elective |
0 |
|
urgent |
2 |
|
emergency |
7 |
previous cardiac operations |
none |
0 |
|
1 |
3 |
|
2 or more |
4 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 13 parameters)
X =
= (-1.75 * EXP(1.45 - (0.0716 * (score)))) + 1.36
probability =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Specialty: Cardiology, Surgery, general
ICD-10: ,