Shan et al reported a model for predicting cardiovascular disease risk for a Chinese male. The authors are from Peking University, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University, South China University of Technology, and University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
CVDMCM = cardiovascular disease model for Chinese males
Patient selection: Chinese adult male
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) smoker
(3) serum total bilirubin in µmol/L
(4) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(5) ankle brachial index (ABI)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
0.305 * (age)
smoker
no
0
yes
0.364
serum total bilirubin
-0.606 * LN(bilirubin)
systolic blood pressure
0.093 * (SBP)
ABI
-2.528 * (ABI)
combined factor
0.00158 * (age) * (SBP)
where:
• The model appears to be very sensitive to the coefficient for the combined factor. There are 2 values given in the text (0.002 and 0.0015). Trial and error showed better performance. In addition, the example gives an ABI of 3.39 which far exceeds the patients' values.
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
X =
= (total score) - 13.092)
4-year cardiovascular risk =
= 1 - (0.977^EXP(X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.77.
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