Durojaiye et al reported a risk prediction model for 30-day unplanned hospitalization for a patient receiving outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT). The authors are from the University of Sheffield in the UK.
Patient selection: outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy
Parameters:
(1) indications for OPAT
(2) intravenous combination therapy
(3) mode of delivery
(4) Charlson comoribidity index (CCI)
(5) number of prior hospitalizations (up to 10)
(6) age in years from 15 to 95 years
points for CCI =
= (0.38875 * (CCI)
points for prior hospitalizations =
= (number of prior hospital stays)
points for age =
= (0.0625 * (years)) - 0.01725
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
indication for OPAT
|
SSTI (skin and soft tissue infection)
|
0
|
|
|
RD (respiratory disease)
|
1.65
|
|
|
BJI (bone and joint infection)
|
2.77
|
|
|
OT (other indication)
|
2.92
|
|
|
UGI (urogenital infection)
|
3.65
|
|
|
EI (endovascular infection)
|
4.77
|
|
IV combination therapy
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
2.38
|
|
mode of delivery
|
CN (community nurse)
|
0
|
|
|
SC (self care administration)
|
0.89
|
|
|
IC (infusion center)
|
1.78
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 31.04
value of X =
= (0.001651 * ((score)^2)) + (0.1996 * (score)) - 3.794
probability of 30-day unplanned hospitalization =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.70.
