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Risk Models of Sinkin et al for Predicting Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in a Neonate

Purpose: To evaluate a neonate for risk of broncho-pulmonary dysplasia (BPD) using the 12 hour and 10 day risk models of Sinkin et al.

Description

Sinkin et al developed models for predicting the risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in a newborn infant. These can help identify an infant who may benefit from closer monitoring and more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Rochester in Rochester, New York.


Parameters:

(1) birth weight in kilograms

(2) gestational age in weeks at birth

(3) Apgar score at 5 minutes

(4) peak inspiratory pressure in centimeters water

(5) mean airway pressure in centimeters of water

 

X =

= (-1.89 * (birth weight in kg)) - (0.21 * (gestational age in weeks)) - (0.25 * (Apgar score at 5 minutes)) + (0.13 * (peak inspiratory pressure at 12 hours)) + 8.12

 

probability of BPD based on 12 hour data =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Y =

= (-2.55 * (birth weight in kg)) - (0.18 * (gestational age in weeks)) + (0.15 * (peak inspiratory pressure at 12 hours))  + (0.4 * (mean airway pressure at 10 days)) + 5.18

 

probability of BPD based on 10 day data =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * Y))

 

Probability Scores

Probability of Requiring Oxygen Supplementation at 28 Days

< 25%

low

25 - 75%

moderate

> 75%

high

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10