Harrison et al reported risk models for invasive Candidiasis in a non-neutropenic adult in the intensive care unit (ICU). One model deals with information obtained after 72 hours in the ICU. The authors are from multiple institutions in the United Kingdom and participants in the Fungal Infection Risk Evaluation (FIRE) study.
Patient selection: ICU, non-neutropenic adult, in the ICU for 72 hours
Parameters:
(1) pancreatitis
(2) number of central venous catheters
(3) number of drains
(4) maximum heart rate during the first 24 hours in the ICU
(5) number of samples positive for fungal colonization from collected from days 1-3 in the ICU
Parameter
Finding
Beta-Coefficient
pancreatitis
no
0
yes
1.10
number of CVCs
0
0
1
1.29
2
2.69
number of drains
0
0
1 to 3
0.66
4
2.03
maximum heart rate
< 100 beats per minute
0
>= 100 beats per minute
0.70
number of positive samples
0
0
>= 1
2.11
value of X =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters) - 8.02
probability of invasive Candidiasis while in ICU =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.84 in the derivation and 0.71 in the validation cohorts.
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