Ibrahim et al reported a model for predicting metabolic syndrome in midlife. Early recognition of the risk allows for steps to be taken to reduce this risk. The authors are from University of Bedfordshire in England.
Patient selection: British birth cohort of 1958
Outcome: metabolic syndrome at age 45 years
Parameters:
(1) gender
(2) father's social class at birth
(3) body mass index (BMI) in kg per sq m at age 7
(4) hypertension (systolic blood pressure >= 130 mm Hg and/or diastolic blood pressure >= 85 mm Hg)
(5) serum triglycerides in mg/dL (timing of collection unclear)
Parameter
Finding
Points
sex
male
0
female
1.22
father's social class
manual
0.27
other
0
BMI at age 7
0.22 * (BMI)
hypertension
no
0
yes
2.71
serum triglycerides
high (>= 150 mg/dL)
3.87
not high
0
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) -10.44
probability of metabolic syndrome in midlife =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.91.
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