Risk factors associated with multiple organ failure after serious injury:
(1) age > 55 years
(2) Injury Severity Score >= 25
(3) more than 6 units of packed RBCs used in the first 12 hours after admission to the hospital
(4) base deficit > 8 mEq/L during first 12 hours after admission
(5) serum lactate > 2.5 mmol/L at 12-24 hours after admission
Conditional Probability for Multiple Organ Failure
conditional probability for multiple organ failure =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * (z)))
Based on age, ISS and blood usage:
z = -3.6450 + (1.3992 if age > 55, else 0) + (1.3936 if ISS >= 25, else 0) + (2.1534 if blood usage > 6 units, else 0)
Based on age, blood usage and base deficit
z = -3.1265 + (1.6191 if age > 55, else 0) + (1.9794 if blood usage > 6 units, else 0) + (1.0795 if base deficit > 8 mEq/L, else 0)
Based on blood usage, base deficit and serum lactate
z = -3.8026 + (1.5902 if blood usage > 6 units, else 0) + (1.5296 if base deficit > 8 mEq/L, else 0) + (1.6591 if lactate > 2.5 mmol/L, else 0)
