Description

Kozar et al identified risk factors associated with morbidity following nonoperative management of a patient with liver trauma. These can help identify patients who may benefit from closer monitoring and more aggressive management. The authors are from the University of Texas Houston, Denver Health Medical Center, University of Washington Seattle, University of Texas Southwestern, Stanford University, Wright State University and Fort Sam Houston.


 

Patient selection: Grade 3, 4 or 5 liver trauma

 

Types of complications:

(1) bleeding

(2) biliary complications (bile peritonitis, biloma, etc.)

(3) intra-abdominal infection

(4) abdominal compartment syndrome

 

Parameters:

(1) liver injury grade

(2) number of units of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) transfused in first 24 hours after injury

 

Number of Units PRBCs

Grade 3

Grade 4

Grade 5

0

3%

14%

35%

5

4%

19%

43%

10

6%

26%

52%

15

8%

33%

61%

20

11%

42%

69%

25

14%

50%

76%

30

20%

60%

83%

35

26%

68%

87%

40

33%

75%

91%

45

42%

81%

93%

50

51%

86%

95%

from Figure 3, page 456

 

If this data is evaluated in MINITAB:

 

probability of complications in Grade 3 injury =

= (0.000198 * ((units of blood)^2)) - (0.000465 * (units of blood)) + 0.03685

 

probability of complications in Grade 4 injury for 0 - 25 units of blood =

= (0.000164 * ((units of blood)^2)) + (0.01052 * (units of blood)) + 0.1375

 

probability of complications in Grade 4 injury for 25 to 50 units of blood =

= (- 0.000236 * ((units of blood)^2)) + (0.03196 * (units of blood)) - 0.150

 

probability of complications in Grade 5 injury =

= (((units of blood)^2)) + (0.02158 * (u- 0.000183 *nits of blood)) + 0.3345

 


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