Patient selection: thoracic aortic aneurysm
Major risk factors for rupture or dissection:
(1) diameter of the aneurysm >= 6 cm
(2) history of stroke
Additional risk factors:
(1) aortic size 5 to 5.9 cm
(2) female gender (male gender protective)
(3) Marfan syndrome (the patient may also have aneurysm elsewhere in the aorta)
Anurysms increased in size at a mean rate of 0.1 cm per year.
|
Initial Aneurysm Diameter
|
Kaplan Meyer Cumulative Incidence of Rupture or Dissection
|
|
3.5 to 3.9 cm
|
11%
|
|
4.0 to 4.9 cm
|
9%
|
|
5.0 to 5.9 cm
|
14%
|
|
>= 6.0 cm
|
29%
|
Logistic regression formula for probability of rupture or acute dissection
X =
= (0.9120 if diameter 5 to 5.9, else 0) + (1.6538 if diameter >= 6, else 0) - (1.0792 if male, else 0) + (1.0683 if stroke history, else 0) + (1.2995 if Marfan's, else 0) - 2.4296
probability =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Limitation: time interval not specified
