Crawford et al identified risk factors associated with early and late mortality following surgical repair of a thoracoabdominal aorta. The authors are from Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.


NOTE: This study was done in 1986 and mortality risks have probably decreased since then, although the risk factors would still be relevant.


Risk factors for early (< 30 day) mortality:

(1) age in years

(2) clamp time in minutes (> 60 minutes was considered a long clamp time; this was seen with complex surgery for complex disease or dissection)

(3) COPD

(4) reoperation to control postoperative bleeding (not included in logistic regression model)




age in years


<age in years>

clamp time in minutes


<clamp time in minutes>








value of X =

= (0.063 * (age in years)) + (0.021 * (points for clamp time)) + (0.722 * (points for COPD)) - 7.793


probability of early mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))


Risk factors for late mortality:

(1) age (low if <= 55 years of age, coefficient 0.031)

(2) rupture of the aneurysm (coefficient 1.545)

(3) presence of renal insufficiency (coefficient 0.811)

(4) extent of disease (Crawford Type II or III, coefficient 0.747)

(5) presence of dissection (coefficient 0.620)


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