Cohen et al evaluated patients receiving maintenance hemodialysis. They identified factors associated with mortality within 6 months. The authors are from Bayside Medical Center, Tufts Medical Center, and West Virginia University.
Patient selection: patient on maintenance hemodialysis
Outcome: 6-month mortality
Parameters:
(1) surprise question (surprised if the patient died in 6 months)
(2) serum albumin in g/dL from 1.7 to 5.0
(3) age in years from 16 to 92 years
(4) peripheral vascular disease
(5) dementia
Parameter
Finding
Hazard Ratio
surprise question
yes
1
no
2.71
serum albumin
< 3.0
1
3.0 to 4.5
0.27^((albumiin)-3)
> 4.5
0.27^1.5
age in year
1.36^(((age)-16)/10)
peripheral vascular disease
no
1
yes
1.88
dementia
no
1
yes
2.24
product of hazard ratios =
= PRODUCT(hazard ratios for the 5 parameters)
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.87.
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