Chu and Liaw identified risk factors for cirrhosis developing in a chronic carrier of hepatitis B virus in Taiwan. The authors are from Chang Gung University in Taipei.
Initial patient selection - inactive carrier of hepatitis B with history >= 1 year of:
(1) positive HBsAg
(2) negative HBeAg
(3) positive anti-HBe
(4) normal serum ALT levels
Risk factors for progression ot cirrhosis:
(1) reactivation of the hepatitis B viral infection (HR 20 in multivariate analysis)
(2) male gender (HR 2.1 in multivariate analysis)
(3) older age (>= 40 years of age)
The risk of progression to cirrhosis increased over time after reactivation (after 5 years).
Note that these risk factors are in patients with evidence of HBe.
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