Schlick et al reported a model for predicting the risk of post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) in a patient with inflammatory bowel disease following a bowel resection. The authors are from Northwestern University, Jesse Brown VA Medical Center and the American College of Surgeons.
Patient selection: status post bowel resection for inflammatory bowel disease (Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis)
Parameters:
(1) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(2) preoperative steroids
(3) inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) type
(4) surgical approach
(5) anastomotic leak
(6) postoperative leak
Parameter
Finding
Points
BMI
< 18.5 kg per sq m
-0.22
18.5 to 24.9
0
25.0 to 29.9
0.35
30.0 to 34.9
0.55
>= 35 kg per sq m
0.85
preoperative steroids
no
0
yes
0.65
IBD type
Crohn's disease
0
ulcerative colitis
0.57
surgical approach
open
0
minimally invasive
0.35
anastomotic leak
no
0
yes
0.81
postoperative ileus
no
0
yes
0.95
X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 5.97
probability of post-discharge VTE =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under te ROC curve is 0.69.
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