Gupta et al developed a model for predicting 30-day mortality for a patient undergoing infrainguinal bypass surgery. The authors are from Creighton University, the University of Nebraska and the VA Nebraska and Western Iowa Health Care System.
Patient selection: adult undergoing infrainguinal bypass surgery
Outcome: 30-day mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) chronic corticosteroid therapy
(3) COPD
(4) systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS)
(5) lower extremity pain at rest
(6) dialysis dependence
(7) functional dependence
|
Parameter |
Findings |
Points |
|
age in years |
|
0.06 * (age) |
|
chronic corticosteroid therapy |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
1.04 |
|
COPD |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.64 |
|
SIRS |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
1.33 |
|
lower extremity pain at rest |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
0.63 |
|
dialysis dependence |
no |
0 |
|
|
yes |
1.63 |
|
functional dependence |
none |
0 |
|
|
partial |
0.66 |
|
|
complete |
1.47 |
value of X =
= SUM(points for all 7 parameters) – 9.26
probability of 30-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1)*X))
Specialty: Anesthesiology
ICD-10: ,
