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Risk Assessment of Bernstein and Parsonnet Prior to Cardiac Surgery: Total Score

Description

Bernstein and Parsonnet developed a model for predicting the risk of cardiac surgery. This consists of a subscore for core risk factors and a subscore for special risk factors. The authors are from Newark Beth Israel Medical Center in New Jersey.


Patient selection: prior to cardiac surgery

 

Outcome: mortality

 

Parameters:

(1) subscore for basic risk factors (from 0 to 73)

(2) subscore for special conditions (from 0 to 131.5)

 

total score =

= (points for basic subscore) + (points for special conditions)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 204.5

• The higher the total score the greater the risk.

 

Score

Percent Risk of Mortality

0 to 50

(0.00029 * ((score)^3)) + (0.0014 * ((score)^2)) + (0.03 * (score)) + 0.4

> 50

> 41%

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81 for the training set and 0.79 for the validation set.


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