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Description

Bernstein and Parsonnet developed a model for predicting the risk of cardiac surgery. This consists of a subscore for core risk factors and a subscore for special risk factors. The authors are from Newark Beth Israel Medical Center in New Jersey.


Patient selection: prior to cardiac surgery

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) sex

(3) congestive heart failure

(4) COPD

(5) diabetes

(6) ejection fraction in percent

(7) hypertension (> 140/90 mm Hg; history of; taking antihypertensive medications)

(8) left-main coronary artery stenosis

(9) body weight and morbid obesity

(10) preoperative intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP)

(11) reoperation

(12) proposed procedure

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 70 years

0

 

70 to 75 years

2.5

 

76 to 79 years

7

 

>= 80 years

11

sex

male

0

 

female

6

congestive heart failure

no

0

 

yes

2.5

COPD

none to moderate

0

 

severe

6

diabetes

no

0

 

yes

3

ejection fraction

>= 50%

0

 

30 to 49%

6.5

 

< 30%

8

hypertension

no

0

 

yes

3

left main coronary artery stenosis

< 50%

0

 

>= 50%

2.5

body weight

<= 1.5 times ideal weight

0

 

> 1.5 times ideal weight

1

preoperative IABP

no

0

 

yes

4

reoperation

none

0

 

first reoperation

10

 

two or more reoperation

20

proposed procedure

aortic valve

0

 

mitral valve

4.5

 

valve and aortocoronary bypass

6

 

other

0

 

subscore for core risk factors =

= SUM(points for all of the risk factors)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 73

• The higher the subscore the greater the risk.


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