Prognostic factors associated with poor prognosis identified on univariate analysis:
(1) ascites
(2) presence of esophageal varices
(3) gastrointestinal bleeding from the esophageal varices
(4) jaundice
(5) hepatomegaly
(6) logarithm of serum albumin (in g/L)
(7) logarithm of serum bilirubin (in µmol/L)
Prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis (Cox model):
(1) gastrointestinal bleeding from esophageal varices
(2) logarithm of serum total bilirubin
relative risk for mortality =
= EXP((1.6812 * ((bleeding from esophageal varices) – 0.25)) + (2.027 * LOG10((bilirubin in µmol/L) – 30.3)))
where:
• bleeding = 1 if present, 0 if absent
• LOG10 indicates logarithm with base 10
• Test data can be found in Table IX on page 124
