Rydning et al used multivariate analysis to evaluate prognostic factors in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). They found that the risk of mortality could be predicted based on bleeding from esophageal varices and the serum total bilirubin. The study was done in Oslo, Norway.


Prognostic factors associated with poor prognosis identified on univariate analysis:

(1) ascites

(2) presence of esophageal varices

(3) gastrointestinal bleeding from the esophageal varices

(4) jaundice

(5) hepatomegaly

(6) logarithm of serum albumin (in g/L)

(7) logarithm of serum bilirubin (in µmol/L)


Prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis (Cox model):

(1) gastrointestinal bleeding from esophageal varices

(2) logarithm of serum total bilirubin


relative risk for mortality =

= EXP((1.6812 * ((bleeding from esophageal varices) – 0.25)) + (2.027 * LOG10((bilirubin in µmol/L) – 30.3)))



• bleeding = 1 if present, 0 if absent

• LOG10 indicates logarithm with base 10

• Test data can be found in Table IX on page 124


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