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Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia Risk Equation (CML)

Purpose: To predict the prognosis for a patient with Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) using a regression model developed by Sokal et al.

Description

Sokal et al proposed an equation for predicting the relative risk for patients with chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) treated with conventional therapy of the time (1985). This information can be used for deciding treatment management, including the decision for bone marrow transplantation.


 

Parameters:

(1) gender of patient

(2) size of spleen in cm

(3) percent blasts circulating in the peripheral blood

(4) platelet count

(5) hematocrit

 

Parameter

Finding

Value

gender

male

1

 

female

2

platelet count per µL

 

(count per µL) / 1000

 

 

LN(relative risk) =

= (0.0255 * ((spleen size in cm) - 8.14)) + (0.0324 * ((percent blasts) - 2.22)) + (0.1025 * ((((platelet value) / 700) ^ 2) -0.627)) - (0.0173 * ((hematocrit) - 34.2)) - (0.2682 * ((gender value) -1.4))

 

where:

• splenic size is assumed but not stated as being the breadth below the costal margin

 

relative risk =

= EXP(equation result)

 

Interpretation:

• 3 risk groups: low, intermediate, and high

 

relative risk

risk group

median survival

< 0.8

low

67 months

0.8 - 1.2

intermediate

52 months (estimated from Figure 2 page 1354)

> 1.2

high

35 months

 


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10