Description

Wu et al reported a score for predicting short-term mortality for a patient with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in China.


Patient selection: HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (serum total bilirubin >= 5 mg/dL; INR >= 1.5; ascites and/or hepatic encephalopathy)

 

Outcome: short-term mortality (28 day and 90 day)

 

Parameters:

(1) INR

(2) HBV-SOFA, from 4 to 12

(3) age in years

(4) serum total bilirubin in mg/dL

 

Parameter

Points

INR

0.741 * (INR)

HBV-SOFA

0.523 * (HBV SOFA)

age in years

0.026 * (age)

serum total bilirubin

0.003 * (bilirubin)

 

score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: around 2.9

maximum score: around 12.4

The higher the score the greater the 28 and 90 day mortalities.

A serum total bilirubin >= 12 mg/dL is associated with short-term mortality.

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve for 28-day mortality was 0.81.


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