Nkam et al reported a prognostic score a patient with cystic fibrosis. This can help to identify the risk of death or lung transplantation within 3 years. The authors are from multiple institutions in Paris.
Patient: cystic fibrosis (CF)
Parameters:
(1) FEV1 as percent of predicted
(2) body mass index (BMI) in kg per square meter
(3) colonization with Burkholderiacepacia
(4) number of courses of intravenous antibiotics per year
(5) hospitalization
(6) oral corticosteroids
(7) long-term oxygen therapy
(8) non-invasive ventilation
Parameter
Finding
Points
FEV1
>= 60% of predicted
0
30 to 59.9%
1.5
< 30%
3
BMI
>= 18.5 kg/sq m
0
16-18.49 kg/sq m
0.5
< 16 kg/sq m
1
colonization
no
0
yes
1
not screened
0
courses IV antibiotics
0
0
1 or 2
0.5
>= 3
1
hospitalization
no
0
yes
0.5
oral corticosteroids
no
0
yes
1
long-term oxygen therapy
no
0
yes
1
non-invasive ventilation
no
0
yes
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 9.5
• The higher the score the greater the risk of death or lung transplantation.
Total Score
3-Year Risk
0 to 1.5
1%
2 to 3.5
10%
>= 4
55%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.91.
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