Mediratta et al reported a score for predicting the risk of neonatal mortality for a patient in Ethiopia. This can help to identify a neonate who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Stanford University and the University of Gondar.
Patient selection: neonate in Ethiopia
Parameters:
(1) admission level of consciousness
(2) admission respiratory distress
(3) gestational age in weeks
(4) birthweight in grams
Parameter
Finding
Points
level of consciousness
alert
0
irritable
6
lethargic
11
comatose
16
respiratory distress
none
0
mild
3
moderate
11
severe
14
gestational age
>= 37 weeks
0
32 to 36 weeks
1
< 32 weeks
10
birthweight
>= 2,500 grams
0
1,500 to 2,499 grams
5
< 1,500 grams
12
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 52
• A score of 12 was associated with a 50% chance of mortality.
• A score of 21 has an 80% chance of mortality.
• A score of 3 has about a 20% chance of mortality.
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.88 for the derivation and 0.85 for the validation cohorts.
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