Description

Lu et al reported a prognostic score for a patient with gastric cancer following gastrectomy. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive or novel therapy. The authors are from Fudan University in Shanghai, China.


Patient selection: gastric cancer following gastrectomy, without distant metastases

 

Parameters:

(1) year

(2) sex

(3) TNM stage

(4) marital status

(5) prognostic scoreof Smith et al for DCIS, based on age, grade and tumor size, from 0 to 6

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

year

1988-1992

9

 

1993-1997

6.1

 

1998-2002

5.7

 

2003-2007

3.2

 

2008-2012

0

sex

female

0

 

male

6.2

TNM stage

IA

0

 

IB

22

 

IIA

37.5

 

IIB

55.8

 

IIIA

67.3

 

IIIB

83.6

 

IIIC

100

marital status

married

0

 

unmarried

6.5

score

0 or 1

0

 

2

13.4

 

3

17.1

 

4

22.1

 

5

27

 

6

32.9

 

Since any current patient is after 2012, this term will be dispensed with.

 

total score =

= SUM(points for the remaining parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 145.6

 

value of X =

= (-0.00011017 * ((score)^2)) - (0.015945 * (score)) + 2.3545

 

probability of 5-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.72.

 


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