Hernandez-Cardenas et al reported a prognostic score for a patient with hypoxemic respiratory failure due to Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia. The authors are from Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Respiratorias Ismael Cosio Vellegas and Instituto Tecnologico de Monterrey in Mexico City.
Patient selection: AIDS patient with Pneumocystis pneumonia
Outcime: in-hospital mortality
Parameters:
(1) body mass index (BMI) in kg per sq meter
(2) serum albumin in g/dL
(3) number of days from hospital admission to respiratory ICU (RICU) admission
(4) number of days requiring norepinephrine
Parameter
Finding
Points
BMI
18.5 to 25
0
17.5 to 18.4
2
16.5 to 17.4
5
< 16.5
7
serum albumin
3.5 to 4.5 g/dL
0
2.5 to 3.4 g/dL
1
1.5 to 2.4 g/dL
3
0.5 to 1.4 g/dL
5
days to RICU
0 to 3 days
0
4 to 7 days
1
8 to 11 days
2
12 to 15 days
3
>= 16 days
4
days on norepinephrine
< 1 day
0
1 to 5 days
1
6 to 10 days
2
11 to 15 days
4
16 to 20 days
6
> 20 days
8
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 24
value of X =
= (0.481 * (score)) - 5.436
probability of in-hospital mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-10 * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.81.
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