Gonzalvez-Gasch et al developed a simple prognostic score for evaluating a patient with acute pancreatitis. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from USP Hospital San Jaime, Hospital Infanta Cristina and Hospital Universitario Fundacion Alcorcon in Spain.
Patient selection: acute pancreatitis
Outcome: complicated acute pancreatitis
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) leukocytes per µL
(3) serum albumin in g/dL (units in paper given as mg/dL)
(4) serum calcium in mg/dL
(5) serum C-reactive protein (CRP) in mg/dL (units may need to be mg/L)
Parameter
Findings
Points
age in years
<= 65 years
0
> 65 years
1
leukocytes
<= 13,000 per µL
0
> 13,000 per µL
1
serum albumin
>= 2.5 g/dL
0
< 2.5 g/dL
1
serum calcium
>= 8.5 mg/dL
0
< 8.5 mg/dL
1
serum CRP
<=150 mg/dL
0
> 150 mg/dL
2
total score =
= SUM(points for all 5 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 6
• The higher the score the worse the prognosis.
Total Score
Risk for Complications
Percent with Complications
0
low
0%
1 to 3
moderate
19%
4 to 6
high
73%
Performance:
• The sensitivity is 90% with specificity of 63%.
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