Collier et al reported a model for evaluating a patient hospitalized with systolic heart failure. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from multiple institutions in Europe, Australia and the United States.
Patient selection: hospitalization for systolic heart failure and mild symptoms
Outcomes: cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure over a median 2.1 year follow-up
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg
(4) eGFR in mL per min per 1.73 square meters
(5) diabetes
(6) previous hospitalization for heart failure
(7) hemoglobin in g/dL
(8) history of prior MI or CABG
(9) body mass index in kg per square meter
(10) heart rate in beats per minute
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 75 years
0
>= 75 years
1
sex
female
0
male
1
systolic blood pressure
>= 130 mm Hg
0
< 130 mm Hg
1
eGFR
>= 70
0
60 to 69
1
< 60
2
diabetes
no
0
yes
1
prior hospitalization for HF
no
0
yes
1
hemoglobin
>= 13 g/dL
0
11 to 12.9 g/dL
1
< 11 g/dL
2
prior MI or CABG
no
0
yes
1
BMI
>= 25 kg per sq m
0
< 25 kg per sq m
1
heart rate
< 80 beats per minute
0
>= 80 beats per minute
1
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 12
Total Score
Risk Group
Rate per 100 Patient Years
0 to 4
low
7.7
5 or 6
medium
19
7 to 12
high
39.4
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.69.
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