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Prognostic Nomogram of Xu et al for a Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization (TACE) in a Patient with Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Description

Xu et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival for a patient with an unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma who undergoes transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). This can help to identify a patient who may or may not benefit from the procedure. The authors are from Sun Yat-sen University, State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, The First Affiliated Hospital, The Chinese University of Hong Kong and Prince of Wales Hospital.


Patient selection: unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE)

 

Outcome: overall survival

 

Parameters:

(1) portal vein invasion

(2) number of tumors

(3) tumor capsule

(4) serum AFP in ng/mL

(5) serum AST in U/L

(6) indocyanine green retention at 15 minutes (ICGR15) in percent

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

portal vein thrombosis

none

0

 

branches of portal vein

46.5

 

main portal vein

100

number of tumors

1

0

 

>= 2

15.7

tumor capsule

yes

0

 

no

11.6

serum AFP

<= 200 ng/mL

0

 

201 to 400 ng/mL

2.2

 

> 400 ng/mL

17.3

serum AST

<= 40 U/L

0

 

> 40 U/L

15.7

ICGR15

<= 10%

0

 

> 10%

16.8

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 177

• The higher the score the worse the overall survival.

 

Total Score

5-Year Overall Survival after TACE

0 to 73

(0.00003238 * ((score)^2)) - (0.010836 * (score)) + 0.6593

> 73

< 5%

 


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