Pan et al reported a nomogram for predicting survival for an older adult who has undergone hip fracture surgery. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Peking University First Hospital in Beijing.
Patient selection: status post hip fracture surgery, age 70 to 98 years
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) Charlson comoribidity index, up to 12
(3) serum albumin in g/L
(4) serum sodium in mmol/L
(5) anemia
points for age =
= (1.959 * (age)) - 137.125
points for Charlson Comorbidity Index =
= MAX(0, (12.5 * (CCI)) - 50)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
serum albumin
|
> 35 g/L
|
0
|
|
|
30 to 35 g/L
|
28.86
|
|
|
25 to 29.99 g/L
|
40.28
|
|
|
< 25 g/L
|
65.12
|
|
sodium
|
135 to 145 mmol/L
|
0
|
|
|
130 to 135 mmol/L
|
19.14
|
|
|
< 130 mol/L
|
35.71
|
|
anemia
|
none
|
0
|
|
|
mild anemia
|
5.71
|
|
|
moderate or severe
|
34.28
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 235.1
value of X =
= (-0.00009234 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01924 * (score)) + 2.881
probability of 3-year overall survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve was 0.76.
