Prognostic Nomogram of Hou et al for Long-Term Mortality in Cirrhosis: Model for a Male

Description

Hou et al reported a sex-specific model for predicting long-term mortality for a patient with cirrhosis. The authors are from Tianjin Medical University in Tianjin, China.

Patient selection: male with cirrhosis

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) Child-Turcotte-Pugh class

(3) intramuscular adipose tissue (IMAC)

(4) MELD score

(5) skeletal muscle index (SMI)

(6) visceral to subcutaneous adipose tissue ratio (VSR)

Parameter	Finding	Points
age in years	< 50 years	0
	>= 50 years	73.2
Child-Turcotte-Pugh	A or B	0
	C	73.2
IMAC	< 0.44	0
	>= 0.44	10.2
MELD score	< 20	0
	>= 20	80
SMI	< 46.96	100
	>= 46.96	0
VSR	< 1.47	0
	>= 1.47	80

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 415.8

• The higher the score the worse the survival.

value of X =

= (-0.00002787 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01057 * (score)) + 2.546

probability of 3-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.9.

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