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Prognostic Models of Zeng et al for a Patient with a Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Model for Distant Metastasis-Free Survival (DMFS)

Description

Zeng et al developed several prognostic models for a patient with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. One model predicted distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). The authors are from Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital Nanchang and Shantou University Medical College.


 

Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma

 

Outcome: 5-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS)

 

Parameters:

(1) serum LDH concentration in IU/L (upper limit of normal reference range 245 IU/L)

(2) N status

(3) primary gross tumor volume in mL

 

points for gross tumor volume =

= (volume in mL) / 2

Parameter

Finding

Points

serum LDH

<= 245 IU/L

0

 

> 245 IU/L

36.1

N status

N0

0

 

N1

0

 

N2

46.8

 

N3

54.8

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 190.9

• The higher the score the greater the risk for distant metastases.

 

Score

Risk Group

5-Year DMFS

< 28

low

90%

28 to 61

moderate

80%

> 61

high

65%

 

 

Score

5-Year DMFD

< 34.4

> 90%

34.4 to 167.4

(-0.000020 * ((score)^2)) - (0.002114 * (score)) + 1.004

> 167.4

< 10%

 

Performance status:

• The c-index was 0.73.

 


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