Zeng et al developed several prognostic models for a patient with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. One model predicted distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). The authors are from Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital Nanchang and Shantou University Medical College.
Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma
Outcome: 5-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS)
Parameters:
(1) serum LDH concentration in IU/L (upper limit of normal reference range 245 IU/L)
(2) N status
(3) primary gross tumor volume in mL
points for gross tumor volume =
= (volume in mL) / 2
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
serum LDH |
<= 245 IU/L |
0 |
|
> 245 IU/L |
36.1 |
N status |
N0 |
0 |
|
N1 |
0 |
|
N2 |
46.8 |
|
N3 |
54.8 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 190.9
• The higher the score the greater the risk for distant metastases.
Score |
Risk Group |
5-Year DMFS |
< 28 |
low |
90% |
28 to 61 |
moderate |
80% |
> 61 |
high |
65% |
Score |
5-Year DMFD |
< 34.4 |
> 90% |
34.4 to 167.4 |
(-0.000020 * ((score)^2)) - (0.002114 * (score)) + 1.004 |
> 167.4 |
< 10% |
Performance status:
• The c-index was 0.73.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Otolaryngology