Prognostic Models of Zeng et al for a Patient with a Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Model for Disease-Specific Survival (DSS)

Description

Zeng et al developed several prognostic models for a patient with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. One model predicted disease-specific survival (DSS). The authors are from Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital Nanchang and Shantou University Medical College.

Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma with age from 15 to 80 years

Outcome: 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS)

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) serum LDH concentration in IU/L (upper limit of normal reference range 245 IU/L)

(3) N status

(4) primary gross tumor volume in mL

points for age =

= (0.6154 * (age)) - 9.231

points for gross tumor volume =

= (volume in mL) / 2

Parameter	Finding	Points
serum LDH	<= 245 IU/L	0
	> 245 IU/L	29.7
N status	N0	0
	N1	0
	N2	27.4
	N3	32.7

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 202.4

• The higher the score the worse the disease-specific survival..

Score	Risk Group	5-Year DMFS
< 60	Low	94%
60 to 82	Moderate	78%
> 82	High	62%

Score	5-Year Disease-Specific Survival
< 36.4	> 95%
36.4 to 169.7	(-0.000042 * ((score)^2)) + (0.001988 * (score)) + 0.9407
> 169.7	< 10%

Performance status:

• The c-index was 0.73.

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Prognostic Models of Zeng et al for a Patient with a Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Model for Disease-Specific Survival (DSS)

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