Zeng et al developed several prognostic models for a patient with nasopharyngeal carcinoma. One model predicted disease-specific survival (DSS). The authors are from Collaborative Innovation Center of Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Jiangxi Cancer Hospital Nanchang and Shantou University Medical College.
Patient selection: nasopharyngeal carcinoma with age from 15 to 80 years
Outcome: 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS)
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) serum LDH concentration in IU/L (upper limit of normal reference range 245 IU/L)
(3) N status
(4) primary gross tumor volume in mL
points for age =
= (0.6154 * (age)) - 9.231
points for gross tumor volume =
= (volume in mL) / 2
Parameter |
Finding |
Points |
serum LDH |
<= 245 IU/L |
0 |
|
> 245 IU/L |
29.7 |
N status |
N0 |
0 |
|
N1 |
0 |
|
N2 |
27.4 |
|
N3 |
32.7 |
total score =
= SUM(points for all 4 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 202.4
• The higher the score the worse the disease-specific survival..
Score |
Risk Group |
5-Year DMFS |
< 60 |
Low |
94% |
60 to 82 |
Moderate |
78% |
> 82 |
High |
62% |
Score |
5-Year Disease-Specific Survival |
< 36.4 |
> 95% |
36.4 to 169.7 |
(-0.000042 * ((score)^2)) + (0.001988 * (score)) + 0.9407 |
> 169.7 |
< 10% |
Performance status:
• The c-index was 0.73.
Specialty: Hematology Oncology, Surgery, general, Otolaryngology