Cowling et al reported two models for evaluating a patient with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The basic model is suitable for a low-resource setting. The authors are from the University of Hong Kong, Mount Sinai Hospital (Toronto) and the Canadian SARS Research Network.
Patient selection: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
Outcome: mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) sex
(3) number of comorbid conditions (asthma, COPD, cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, cancer, diabetes mellitus, chronic renal disease, chronic liver disease)
Parameter
Finding
Points
age in years
< 40 years
0
40 to 49 years
5
50 to 59 years
7
60 to 69 years
11
>= 70 years
15
sex
female
0
male
2
comorbid conditions
0
0
1
1
>= 2
4
total score =
= SUM(points for all 3 parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 21
• The higher the score the greater the risk of death.
Total Score
Mortality Rate
<= 2
3%
3 or 4
6%
5 or 6
9%
7 or 8
14%
9 or 10
21%
11 or 12
30%
13 or 14
41%
15 or 16
53%
17 or 18
65%
19 to 21
77%
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.86 in the derivation cohort and 0.88 in the validation cohort.
To read more or access our algorithms and calculators, please log in or register.
