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Description

Zhou et al reported a model and nomogram for predicting prognosis for a patient with Ewing sarcoma of bone. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive or novel therapy. The authors are from Wenzhou Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine in Zhejiang. China.


Patient selection: Ewing sarcoma of bone

 

Outcome: 5-year overall survival

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) race

(3) stage

(4) tumor site

(5) tumor size in mm

(6) chemotherapy

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 13 years

0

 

13 to 28 years

47.7

 

> 28 years

95.5

race

White

0

 

Black

13.3

 

other

26.4

stage

localized

0

 

regional spread

50

 

distant metastases

100

tumor site

appendicular bone

0

 

axial bone

25.7

tumor size

< 71 mm

0

 

71 to 115 mm

25.3

 

> 115 mm

50.9

chemotherapy

no

0

 

yes

88

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters)

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 386.5

• The greater the score the worse the 5-year survival.

 

value of X =

= (-0.00004203 * ((score)^2)) - (0.007698 * (score)) + 2.612

 

probability of 5-year survival =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

Performance:

• The area under the ROC curve is 0.75.


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