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Prognostic Model of Vollmer and Seigler al for Predicting 5 Year Survival in Patients with Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma

Description

Vollmer and Seigler developed a prognostic model for predicting 5-year survival in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma. It utilizes a continuous transformation for the Breslow thickness rather than discrete cut points. The authors are from the VA and Duke Medical Centers in Durham, North Carolina.


 

Parameters:

(1) continuous transformation of the Breslow thickness

(2) ulceration of the lesion

(3) location

(4) age of the patient

(5) sex of the patient

 

T value =

= 1 – (0.966 * (EXP((-0.2016)*(Breslow thickness in mm))))

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

ulceration

absent

0

 

present

1

location

nonacral extremity (extremities excluding acral)

0

 

all other sites (including acral)

1

age

< 60 years of age

0

 

>= 60 years of age

(age) - 60

sex of the patient

male

0

 

female

1

 

hs =

= (2.28 * (T value for thickness)) + (0.472 * (points for ulcer)) + (0.299 * (points for site)) + (0.0622 * (points for age)) – (1.64 * (points for sex of patient))

 

X =

= (1.42 * (hs)) – 2.59

 

probability of 5-year mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))

 

probability of 5-year survival =

= 1 – (probability of 5-year mortality)

 


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