Velseboer et al reported a prognostic model for a patient newly diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. This can help to identify a patient at risk for an unfavorable outcome. The authors are from the Academic Medical Centre Amsterdam, University of Cambridge, University College London and Radboud University Medical Center.
Unfavorable outcome: postural instability, dementia or death at 5-year follow-up
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) UPDRS motor examination (ME) axial score
(3) animal fluency score
Parameter
Points
age
0.059 * (age)
UPDRS-ME axial score
0.3794 * (score)
animal fluency
-0.0684 * (score) * (correction factor)
where:
• Mean animal fluency scores were 16.6 to 19.2.
• Mean UPDRS ME axial scores were 1.3 to 2.8.
The correction factor is based on language:
(1) Dutch: 1
(2) English: 1.267
(3) other language: 22.3 / (mean score for health control 60-70 years old)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all 3 factors) - 3.1246
probability of an unfavorable outcome =
= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve rangded from 0.75 to 0.84.
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