Velseboer et al reported a prognostic model for a patient newly diagnosed with Parkinson's disease. This can help to identify a patient at risk for an unfavorable outcome. The authors are from the Academic Medical Centre Amsterdam, University of Cambridge, University College London and Radboud University Medical Center.

Unfavorable outcome: postural instability, dementia or death at 5-year follow-up



(1) age in years

(2) UPDRS motor examination (ME) axial score

(3) animal fluency score





0.059 * (age)

UPDRS-ME axial score

0.3794 * (score)

animal fluency

-0.0684 * (score) * (correction factor)



• Mean animal fluency scores were 16.6 to 19.2.

• Mean UPDRS ME axial scores were 1.3 to 2.8.


The correction factor is based on language:

(1) Dutch: 1

(2) English: 1.267

(3) other language: 22.3 / (mean score for health control 60-70 years old)


value of X =

= SUM(points for all 3 factors) - 3.1246


probability of an unfavorable outcome =

= 1 / (1+ EXP((-1) * X))



• The area under the ROC curve rangded from 0.75 to 0.84.

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