Schmidt et al reported a model for predicting mortality for a patient with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). This can help to counsel the patient in management decisions. The authors are from West Virginia University, University of Massachusetts and Optistatim LLC.
Patient selection: advanced chronic kidney disease (Stage 4 and 5), age >= 18 years
Outcome: 12 month mortality
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) Karnofsky performance scale (KPS)
(3) surprise question (Would I be surprised if the patient died in the next 12 months?)
Parameter
Finding
Odds Ratio
age in years
1.41 ^ ((age)/10)
KPS
80 to 100
1
50 to 70
2.1
10 to 40
4.7
surprise question
no
3.3
yes
1
where:
• There could be several ways to express age-related risk. The intent may be INT((age)/10).
cumulative odds ratio for 12-month mortality =
= PRODUCT(odds ratios)
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