Sanger et al reported a prognostic model for a patient with a surgical site infection based on daily assessment of the wound. The authors are from the University of Washington Seattle and VU University Medical Center Amsterdam.
Parameters:
(1) nasogastric tube
(2) maximum amount of exudate over the past 2 days
(3) maximum heart rate in beats per minute over the past 2 days
(4) maximum slough type over the past 2 days
(5) maximum wound length in centimeters over the past 2 days
Parameter
Finding
Points
slough/necrosis type
none visible
0
white/gray nonviable tissue
1
loosely adherent yellow slough
2
adherent, soft, black eschar
3
firmly adherent, hard, black eschar
4
nasogastric tube in previous 24 hours
no
0
yes
1
exudate amount
none
0
scant
1
small (<=25% wet)
2
moderate
3
large (>= 75% wet)
4
X =
= (0.645 * (points for NG tube)) + (0.213 * (points for exudate amount)) + (0.017 * (heart rate)) + (0.165 * (points for slough type)) + (0.016 * (wound length)) - 3.087
probability of surgical site infection =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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