Ni et al reported a prognostic model for a patient with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis. This can help to identify a patient who may require more aggressive management. The authors are from Zhejiang University.
Patient selection: antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody glomerulonephritis, most myeloperoxidase positive
Parameters:
(1) hypertension
(2) serum creatinine in µmol/L
(3) daily urine protein in grams per day
(4) percent glomerular sclerosis, from 0 to 100
(5) percent interstitial fibrosis, from 0 to 100
points for serum creatinine =
= 0.07692 * (creatinine)
points for daily urine protein =
= 6.7857 * (protein)
points for percent glomerular sclerosis =
= 0.516 * (percent sclerosis)
|
Parameter
|
Finding
|
Points
|
|
hypertension
|
no
|
0
|
|
|
yes
|
21
|
|
interstitial fibrosis
|
<= 50%
|
0
|
|
|
> 50%
|
27.5
|
total score =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters)
Interpretation:
• minimum score: 0
• maximum score: 295.1
• The higher the score the greater the mortality.
value of X =
= (-0.0001666 * ((score)^2)) - (0.01405 * (score)) + 3.503
probability of 5-year survival =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.82 in the all-data set.
