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Prognostic Model of Mandrekar et al for Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Purpose: To estimate the survival for a patient with advanced non-small cell lung cancer based on the model of Mandrekar et al.

Description

Mandrekar et al developed a model for predicting the probability of survival for a patient with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This can help identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive or a novel therapy. The authors are from the Mayo Clinic, Missouri Valley Cancer Center (Omaha), Duluth Clinic, University of Manitoba, and University of Colorado.


Patient selection: Stage IV non-small cell lung cancer and ECOG performance scale <= 3

 

Parameters:

(1) ECOG performance scale (PS)

(2) body weight

(3) anemia

(4) white blood cell (WBC) count

(5) baseline survival S0

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

ECOG performance

0

0

 

1

0.48

 

2 or 3

0.96

body weight

underweight

0.60

 

normal weight

0

 

overweight

0.11

 

obese

-0.11

anemia

absent

0

 

present

0.41

WBC count

normal

0

 

increased

0.35

 

X =

= (points for ECOG) + (points for body weight) + (points for anemia) + (points for WBC count) + 0.26

 

Time (Y)

S0

3 months

0.91

6 months

0.76

9 months

0.64

12 months

0.54

18 months

0.39

24 months

0.30

 

This data can be approximated in Minitab as:

 

survival factor S0 =

= (0.000999 * ((months)^2)) - (0.05567 * (months)) + 1.063

 

probability for survival to Y months =

= (S0 for Y months) ^ (EXP(X))


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Specialty

Objective

ICD-10