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Prognostic Model of Levine et al for Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Using Serum Biomarkers (Ann Arbor Score)

Description

Levine et al reported a prognostic model for acute-graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant using serum biomarkers. The authors are from the University of Michigan, University of Regensburg, University of Minnesota, Dana Farber Cancer Cancer Institute, the Johns Hopkins University and MD Anderson Cancer Center.


Patient selection: allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant

 

Outcome: probability of 6-month NRM (non-relapse mortality) at the onset of GVHD symptoms

 

Parameters:

(1) serum TNFR1 (TNF receptor 1, in pg/mL)

(2) serum REG3alpha (regenerating islet-derived 3-alpha), in ng/mL

(3) serum ST2 (suppression of tumorigenicity 2), in pg/mL

 

Parameter

Points

TNFR1

0.598*LOG2(TNFR1)

REG3alpha

-0.028*LOG2(REG3a)

ST2

0.189*LOG2(ST2)

 

value of X =

= SUM(points for the parameters) - 9.169

 

probability of 6-month NRM =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-10 * X))

 

Probability

Ann Arbor Score

< 10%

1

10 to 39.9%

2

>= 40%

3

 


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