Prognostic Model of Leung et al for a Patient with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Based on Plasma EBV DNA Load and TNM Stage

 

Parameters:

(1) pretherapy plasma Epstein Barr virus (EBV) DNA viral load

(2) TNM stage (International Union Against Cancer)

Viral Load	TNM Stage	5 Year Survival
< 4,000 copies per mL	I or II	91%
< 4,000 copies per mL	III or IV	66%
>= 4,000 copies/mL	I or II	64%
>= 4,000 copies/mL	III or IV	54%

 

where:

• A viral load < 4,000 copies per mL is considered low while a load >= 4,000 is considered high.

• The prognosis for a patient with high viral load and TNM I or II is comparable to a patient with low viral load and TNM III or IV.

• The 5 year survival based on TNM stage was 92% for Stage I, 80% for Stage II, 73% for Stage III and 47% for Stage IV.

• A person with high EBV load and Stage IV could have a worse 5 year survival than the reported 54%, since this value includes Stage III patients who have a better prognosis. As stated on page 5416 (second column) patients with Stage III or Stage IV disease when analyzed separately did not show prognostic difference between low and high viral loads.