Halnonen et al developed a prognostic model for predicting mortality for a patient with severe acute pancreatitis based on data collected shortly after admission. This can help identify a patient who may require more aggressive management and closer monitoring. The authors are from Helsinki University in Finland.
Parameters:
(1) age in years
(2) therapy with cardiovascular and/or anticoagulant drugs
(3) mechanical ventilation during the first 72 hours after admission
(4) maximum serum creatinine within 60 to 72 hours from admission in µmol/L
where:
• Cardiovascular drugs include diuretics, antihypertensive drugs, or digoxin.
• The statement for maximum serum creatinine statement can be parsed in 2 ways (a) maximum creatinine in the interval between 60 and 72 hours after admission and (b) maximum creatinine within the first 60 to 72 hours. I have used the former in the implementation.
Parameter
Finding
Points
therapy with cardiovascular and/or anticoagulant drugs
no
0
yes
1
mechanical ventilation within 72 hours of admission
no
0
yes
1
X =
= (0.045 * (age in years)) + (0.934 * (points for history of cardiovascular disease or anticoagulation)) + (1.090 * (points for mechanical ventilation)) + (0.006 * (maximum serum creatinine)) - 4.765
probability of mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
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