Dorsch et al reported a prognostic model for a patient with acute myocardial infarction. This can help to evaluate the quality of care received. The authors are from the Evaluation of Methods and Management of Acute Coronary Events (EMMACE) Study Group and Leeds General Infirmary in the UK.
Patient selection: acute myocardial infarction, from 35 to 74 years, first presentation during recruitment window
Parameters at the time of admission:
(1) age in years
(2) heart rate in beats per minute
(3) systolic blood pressure
Parameter
Points
age in years
0.085 * (age)
heart rate
0.014 * (heart rate)
systolic blood pressure
-0.022 * (SBP)
value of X =
= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 5.624
probability of 30-day mortality =
= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * X))
Performance:
• The area under the ROC curve is 0.79 in the reference and 0.76 in the test cohorts.
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