Prognostic Model of Baldwin et al for 6-Month Mortality for an Older Adult Following Intensive Care

Description

Baldwin et al reported a model for predicting 6-month mortality for an older adult who has survived intensive care. The authors are from Columbia University, New York-Presbyterian Hospital, Weill Cornell Medical College and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center.

Patient selection: age >70 years

Parameters:

(1) primary diagnosis

(2) hospital length of stay in days

(3) gender

(4) admission details

(5) discharge details

(6) duration of mechanical ventilation in hours

(7) age in years

(8) Charlson comorbidity index

(9) DNR (do-not-resuscitate) ordered during hospital stay

Parameter	Finding	Points
primary diagnosis	solid malignancy	0.2233023
	hematologic malignancy	1.701729
	sepsis	0.3962473
	stroke	1.22891
	other	0
length of stay	< 8 days	0
	8 to 21 days	0.2143227
	> 21 days	0.773016
gender	female	0
	male	0.2806615
admission details	from another hospital	0.334031
	from skilled care facility	0.7831606
	other	0
discharge	skilled care facility	0.8696417
	other	0
mechanical ventilation	<= 96 hours	0.0589878
	> 96 hours without tracheostomy	0.1181286
	> 96 hours with tracheostomy	0.4693917
	none	0
age		0.0262467 * ((age) - 65)
Charlson comorbidity	0 or 1	0
	2 to 5	0.6130147
	6 or 7	0.8316153
	>= 8	1.970854
DNR	no	0
	yes	1.260412

total score =

= SUM(points for all of the parameters) - 5.28073

probability of mortality =

= 1 / (1 + EXP((-1) * score))

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Prognostic Model of Baldwin et al for 6-Month Mortality for an Older Adult Following Intensive Care

Description

Specialty