Description

Ahn et al reported a model for predicting outcome associated with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. This can help to identify a patient who may benefit from more aggressive management. The authors are from Asan Medical Center and the University of Ulsan in Seoul.


Patient selection: chemotherapy-induced neutropenia

 

Criteria for febrile neutropenia:

(1) absolute neutrophil count < 500 per µL OR (< 1,000 per µL AND predicted fall to < 500 per µL in 2-3 days)

(2) body temperature > 38.0°C by tympanic thermometer

 

Outcomes: adverse event (MASCC risk index) including death, bacteremia

 

Parameters:

(1) age in years

(2) serum procalcitonin in ng/mL (method and reference range not stated)

(3) ECOG performance status

(4) oral mucositis grade

(5) systolic blood pressure in mm Hg

(6) respiratory rate in breaths per minute

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age in years

< 60 years

0

 

>= 60 years

2

procalcitonin

< 0.5 ng/mL

0

 

>= 0.5 ng/mL

5

ECOG performance

0 or 1

0

 

2 to 4

2

oral mucositis

Grade 0 to 2

0

 

Grade 3 or 4

3

systolic blood pressure

>= 90 mm Hg

0

 

< 90 mm Hg

3

respiratory rate

< 23 breaths per minute

0

 

>= 23 breaths per minute

3

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 6 parameters)

 

Interpretation:

minimum score: 0

maximum score: 18

The higher the score the greater the risk of an adverse event.

 

Score

Risk Class

Unfavorable Outcome

0 to 2

low risk (I)

6%

3 to 8

intermediate risk (II)

27%

>= 9

high risk (III)

68%

 

Performance:

The area under the ROC curve for any adverse event ranged from 0.80 to 0.84.

The area under the ROC curve for bacteremia ranged was around 0.86.


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