Description

Stebbing et al developed a prognostic index for patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. This can help make decisions about therapy in these patients. The authors are from Chelsea and Westminster Hospital in London.


Time for use: when Kaposi's sarcoma is first diagnosed

 

Parameters:

(1) age of the patient in years

(2) CD4 count per µL

(3) Kaposi's sarcoma as the AIDS defining illness

(4) presence of another AIDS-associated illness at the same time

 

Parameter

Finding

Points

age of the patient

< 50 years of age

0

 

>= 50 years of age

2

CD4 count per µL

 

(-1) * MIN(7, INT((CD4 count) / 100))

Kaposi's as AIDS definer

no

0

 

yes

-3

other AIDS illness

no

0

 

yes

3

 

where:

• To achieve the minimal score of 0, the maximum points for CD4 count must be (-7).

 

total score =

= SUM(points for all 4 parameters) + 10

 

Interpretation:

• minimum score: 0

• maximum score: 15

• The higher the score the worse the prognosis.

 

Total Score

Prognosis

5 Year Survival

< 5

good

78-95%

5 - 10

fair

60 - 80%

> 10

poor

50%

from Figure 4 (range from both primary cohort and validation set)

 

 

Total Score

5 Year

0

98%

5

92%

10

63%

15

8%

from Table 5, page 1500

 

If this data is analyzed in Minitab:

 

probability of 5 year survival if > 5 points =

= (-0.00486 * ((score)^2)) + (0.01334 * (score)) + 0.9787


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