Description

Cox et al developed a nomogram to predict the probability of successfully mapping the sentinel lymph nodes in the axilla of a woman with breast cancer. The probability of successful mapping was affected by both the age and body mass index for the patient. The authors are from the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center in Tampa, Florida.


 

Parameters:

(1) age: between 29.5 and 80.5 years

(2) body mass index (BMI): between 19.5 and 40.5 kg per meter square

 

When the nomogram is examined (Cox, Figure 3) it can be seen that the different probability lines are parallel. Each line is of the form:

 

BMI =

= ((slope) * (age in years)) + (intercept)

 

If all of the lines are examined, it can be seen that:

(1) the average slope is -1.04

(2) the intercepts for the lines forms a second order curve

 

If the intercepts for each probability are analyzed in JMP, the following equation is derived:

 

probability for successful mapping =

= (-0.0118 * ((intercept) ^ 2) + (1.228 * (intercept)) + 64.2

 

If the line equation for BMI is rearranged:

 

intercept for a given probability =

= (BMI) + (1.04 * (age in years))

 

The probability for successful mapping can then be calculated by using this expression for the intercept,

 


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